Best Practice in Short-Term Forecasting. A Users Guide

Short-term forecasting of wind power for about 48 hours in advance is an established technique by now. Any utility getting over a few percent wind power penetration is buying a system or a service on the market. However, once the system is installed and running day-to-day in the control room or on the trading floor, what is the best way to use the predictions? Which pitfalls are there to be aware of, and how can one maximise the value of the short-term forecasts? For this purpose, a workshop was organised in Delft in October 2006. The aim of the paper is to present the results of this study and analyse how practices are influenced by the initial choice of the prediction approach or prediction system, the level of penetration, the intended use of the forecasts, the acceptance operators may have for wind energy, the power system management tools or functions where the forecasts are used, and many more